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Not so Prompt: Prompt Optimization as Model Selection

Prompt optimization is a budgeted black-box optimization problem. It is made worse by the fact that: 1) the mapping from prompt to performance is opaque, and 2) measurements are noisy because of sampling (which rows you draw), decoding randomness (temperature/top-p), retrieval/context variability, serving load, and judge variability. Under

The Welfare Costs of Low-Friction Idea Production

Humans are naturally curious, and curiosity often takes us into domains where our understanding is shallow. Large language models (LLMs) have radically lowered the marginal cost of experimentation in such domains. Minutes of prompting can yield a plausible business strategy, technical architecture, or research framework—outputs that look like the

Fun Facts

Geography 1. The Moon is 3/4th the width of the mainland US 2. Chile is as long as the mainland US is wide 3. The easternmost point of Brazil is closer to Africa than it is to the westernmost point of Brazil. Electric Fact (2024) Bihar electricity consumption ~ 8

Less Known Facts About Muslims in India

There are two main concerns about Indian Muslims. First, many fear that Indian Muslims are greatly behind other groups. The second, deeper concern relates to Muslim women. Many fear that sex gaps are much larger among Muslims than other groups. Let’s look at the facts. 1. Education: The literacy

When OLS and SUR Disagree

Under Zellner’s classical SUR assumptions—the same regressors in each equation and a common sample of observations—OLS and SUR produce the same coefficient estimates, but SUR yields smaller standard errors. Differences in coefficients appear in practice for good and bad reasons: Efficient, “good” differences arise from intentional GLS

How Many People Does It Take …?

A 700,000 square meter Hindu temple—the world’s second-largest Hindu temple--was recently inaugurated in New Jersey. The sect that built the temple is known for building many other elaborate temples, see, for instance, the temple in Delhi (TripAdvisor rates it as the second biggest attraction in Delhi) or

Take 80 mg Atorvastatin for Myalgia

Here’s a drug pamphlet with a table about side effects The same table can be found here: https://www.rxlist.com/lipitor-drug.htm#side_effects As you can see, for a range of conditions, the rate at which patients experience side effects is greater in the Placebo arm than

A Benchmark For Benchmarks

Benchmark datasets like MNIST, ImageNet, etc., abound in machine learning. Such datasets stimulate work on a problem by providing an agreed-upon mark to beat. Many of the benchmark datasets, however, are constructed in an ad hoc manner. As a result, it is hard to understand why the best-performing models vary